Did you forget Valentines Day? Never mind, I forgot to post this on the day in question as well….

The 14th of February also marks the point of Thermal Mid Winter for Northern Scotland, the point when the rolling 30year average temperature at the 850mb height reaches it’s lowest level. Sea temperatures around Scotland are usually also lower than early in the winter, so cold air gets less modification as it passes over the sea towards us.  However this can mean less convective snow showers bubbling up over the sea as it requires colder air aloft to generate the same temperature gradient as earlier in the winter, this is part of why we’re getting bluebird days and not the repeated dumpage of late December from the current weather pattern.

As we move through the last couple of weeks of the official UK meteorological winter (in reality the astronomical definition of 21st Dec to 21st March is perhaps more useful for Highland Scotland) we start to move into a period where the Atlantic is traditionally quieter - the chances of big Atlantic storms starts to diminish. Hopefully the Atlantic hasn’t been saving itself up all winter so far!

As the days lengthen so the potential for convective showers start to increase, remember the April (Snow) Showers of 2008.  Dare we even hope for a 2001 or 2008 like spring after the season so far?