Hello

I am not Alan obviously but online weather predicts cold until end of friday (the forecast didn't go much further than this). Looking at the syoptic charts on the bbc for tomorrow I owuld definitely say that tomorrow will continue cold. I am watching like a hawk, will this weekend be the first climbing of the season??

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sorry, didn't mean wednesday! Meant that snow-forecast are forecasting warm weather from FRIDAY night, but met office are predicting a cold weekend, does ANYONE know what the weather will be like this weekend????

The only light I can shed on it, is that the models appear to be all over the shot with the current set up. Hang on, could be in for a roller coaster with the weather!

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Speaking of all over the shop and Glencoe. I remember I was in Glencoe once and the Kingy was full so I had to sleep in my car and it got down to minus 11c that night, but by midday the next day (like 8 hours later) it was plus 11c in Fort William. 22c difference in less than half a day. Did have a great days skiing at Nevis on a couple of inches of fresh powder the day before so it wasn't all bad.

Temperatures have now risen above freezing at the top of Aonach Mor, and the forecast suggests the freezing level remaining above the summits through Saturday until late tomorrow evening, when it should swiftly fall back. With fairly heavy rain forecast, the snow pack will quickly become saturated, and there will be a steady thaw.

However, what comes through Saturday should freeze hard overnight, and with the current indications being that next week is set cool, with further snow showers for at least the upper slopes, hopefully we will start to see a base taking shape on the top runs. Freezing level is like to be around 3000ft, perhaps lowering slightly. The pattern will be a cool zonal one, so need to keep an eye on the temperature.

If the current forecasts come off we could be looking at potentially a foot of snow again between Sunday and mid-week for the Western mountains, around 5-10cm for the Cairngorms. If a few more of the showers make it through to the East, and some of the existing snow comes through the thaw on CairnGorm, (which is touch and go as there is less snow there), then with drifting there is a chance at least of CairnGorm being able to offer some limited sport in the Top Basin soon after it opens, but it's a case of fingers crossed, and keep watching the forecast and the webcams.

The best chance of seeing upper runs fill enough next week is in the West with this type of weather pattern, however Nevis is doing its annual maintenance, and it's not best placed to take advantage of early high level snow as if the snow level isn't low enough the only way to the Summit Tow is on foot. You probably don't want to hear this, but with the current cover and the current forecast the place with the best shot of getting enough were it matters and is lift accessible is the Main Basin on Meall a' Bhuiridh!! Enough said.

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apparenty lecht to tomintoul road was closed earlier because of whiteout conditions. It was on snowboardinguk website. I checked it on AA website and it said it was closed. Hopefully lots of snow. But will probably turn to rain and melt tomorrow!

RAC

* the Rac site confirms the lecht road is still closed for cars without 4 WD

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Post Edited (23:58 hrs on Fri 28 Nov 03)

Quick update:

The temperature has been at -1°c on the top of Aonach Mor since mid morning, so precipitation falling should be snow down to around 3-3500ft by now, and hopefully lowering. Temperature didn't go above 1°c last night at Nevis so hopefully a reasonable amount of the snow has come through for fresh stuff to lie on and refreeze.

Over at CairnGorm the temperature at the summit is back down to 0°c. some narrow strips have survived the thaw by the fences on the middle slopes, so should be something remaining in the top basin to refreze. From the temperature and from what can be made out on the camera I think this downpour is now falling as snow from around top station level. Fingers crossed.

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I see (cairngorm webcam) that all the snow has gone, Saturday, then come back again - Sunday am!
hopefully some of the marginal base layer-strips froze before the new stuff covered it

Does anyone know what the conditions are like on Ben Nevis? I've been thinking about hiking up just to get a few turns in, dunno if the snow-pack is secure enough or whether there is even enough snow, looks pretty darn snowy on the webcam though. Anyone been up in the last couple of days? Any patches of snow deep enough to ski on or build a jump?

See the photos in the climbing reports forum!!

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Don't know if anyones seen this site but it gives a good dec forecast - says good skiing mid month....hope it's right!

[www.net-weather.co.uk]

Don't know if anyone else is subscribed to snow-forecast.com, but the 7 days forecast of Europe looks good for everywhere, but here. It shows cold Siberian air gradually pushing down over the next week everywhere in Europe even Greece apart from a little GS-shaped blip around us. Groan!

Don't worry about it, Scottish weather is almost impossible to predict a week in advance! I have to say that snow-forecast quite often get it wrong and their trends change every day. The second half of December is looking good for us and that's what really matters, as Alan says, snow at Christmas will be make or break (probably) for our winter.

Oh absolutely, snow-forecast do quite often get things wrong. I had a famous (for me at least ;-) ) on Lochnagar in Feb 01 when they predicted 10c and rain. We had -10c, clear sky and a long, long trudge through about two foot of powder to even get to the carpark as the road was only cleared up until the cattle grate by the end of the forest. I have to say tho when I was in NZ over the summer they got the forecast spot on (even out to 7 days) for the whole 8 weeks I was there. I'm not so sure on how vital Christmas snow is for a good season. The 2000-01 season was a corker, but although Christmas was cold and snowy, by the time I got back to Uni I remember it being quite mild. Although I went to NR for a days skiing in mid Jan and the snow there was, was a excellent base of hard, icy snow that must have held the heavy snows we got after that well into the summer, so you may well be right. Anyway fingers crossed for a good season and plenty of cold, snowy weather over Christmas anyway!

Where are you at uni man? You're not a Glasgow medic are you?