Spring is about to give way to summer, and fresh snow is lying on the higher summits. May has been fairly cool and below average in the Northern half of the country, and the long range forecasts are not exactly very inspiring for the summer, but we shall see. With the Metcheck 100day GFS predicting a fairly cool and probably damp summer for North Scotland with average to below avg temps predominating over the warmer spells, could such a trend continue through the autumn and beyond. Might we actually see a run or at least consecutive back to back below average temperature months? What about winter 2006..... Here's the first Ramp of the new season:

Quote:

Nov 05
Rather colder than average, very cold end but mild start. Rainfall about par.
Dec 05
Rather below par for temperature especially at night. Some snow around

From a link on TWO.

Noooooooooooooooooooooo

If only the Highlands were down south, according to our local weather Station here in Northants 4 of the 5 months this year have been at or bellow average temperature wise. So much for global warming, even March was 0.7 degrees colder than normal even with 2 weeks of hot weather at the end, May is currently -1.1 degrees colder than average even after it was 29.2 degrees on Friday and a hot weekend. In fact overall the last year or so has been mostly at or cooler than average, we don't seem to be warming up too much down here.

[www.timesonline.co.uk]

[www.realclimate.org]

The problem this winter was a sustained cold period through feb and early March where there was very little consolidation of the snowpack, followed by a second half of March that was actually milder than May!! In fact it was really a 72hour period that wiped out what would otherwise have been a fine spring for snowsports. The encouraging thing is that despite a short season we have had a gradual improvement each season from the low point of 2003, and as far as global warming goes, 2003 was NOT a mild winter, it was actually a cold but dry winter.

I think (can someone confirm) that the hotest day of the year so far was in March for NE Scotland.

The Metcheck 100day GFS output now has a North Scotland Zone, and the latest run continues the theme of a below average September, and has the last week moving into October at 6degrees BELOW NORMAL... Will track Sept through the summer to see how this initial forecast fares.

Met Office Season forecast:

"Current indications favour below average temperatures for winter 2005/06 over parts of northern and eastern Europe including the UK."

That's next season written off then...

Ha Ha... does have a familar ring to it doesn't it!

Actually the Met Office predicting below average temperatures is unheard off... they have their global warming grants to look after remember

Fair dues, Alan, but you have to admit that the last few winters have had "below average temperatures" linked to them and with the exception of Mid-Feb to Mid-March this year have been on the whole disappointing.

Ahh but Alan is right, The Met Office has gone for mild winters for as long as I can remember and last year it was one of the few to call it mild when the majority went for a cold winter.

Interestingly they have linked this winters forecast to a change in the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). This isn't very well understood (well by me anyway) but it is thought that once it flips to either possitive or negative (as predicted this winter) it can stay that way for a long time.

Here's hoping.

Gavin

Shouldn't this thread be the daughter rather than the mother?

Winterhighland 2006 Season Forecast (NAO based):

The Winterhighland 2006 seasonal forecast (August Issue) is derived from the Met Office experimental NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Seasonal Forecast. The Met Office forecast has in hind-casting analysis correctly predicted whether the NAO will be positive or negative for 2 out of every 3 winters.

Using a Scottish Season NAO derived index, there is a 60% probability at this stage that the 2006 season will be a better than average season, with a 30% possibility of a season which would rank in the top quarter of Scottish Seasons.

We have several key patterns we look out for in the autumn as an indication of the winter ahead, and will consider these and what they could mean for the Met Office NAO prediction, and thus the Scottish winter later in the year.

Happy Ramping!



Edited 1 times. Last edit at 00.55hrs Tue 2 Aug 05 by alan.